EIA forecasts global oil production will rise 1.6m bpd in 2025

The EIA is out with the latest STEO.

• We expect the Brent crude oil spot price will remain close to its current level in 2025, averaging $74 per barrel for the year
• They see the oil market as ‘relatively balanced’
• US production seen at 13.52 mbpd vs 13.53 mbpd prior (vs 12.93 mbpd this year)
• US natural gas consumption 90.2 bcf vs 89.6 bcf
• We expect global oil inventories will end 2025 near their current volume
• Sees global demand at 104.3 mbpd and supply at 104.2 mbpd

US production growth is slowing and I suspect it will level out with oil prices at these levels.

“We expect that the extension of OPEC+ production cuts will cause
inventories to fall by 0.7 million b/d the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25).
However, we expect the subsequent ramp up in OPEC+ production and
continued supply growth outside of OPEC+ will lead to an average
inventory build of 0.1 million b/d over the remainder of 2025,” the report says.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.