Euro nudges a little lower after the data releases

The German states’ CPI figures here were a bit of a mixed bag. But at the balance, it should translate to a national reading of around 2.2% to 2.3% for headline annual inflation. That will sit more or less in line with estimates, though a touch on the softer side. In any case, the core reading is what will matter more in the report later.

Besides that, we also got some softer lending data from the euro area here. The good news there is that at least the first rate cut is coming, so that might help borrowers in that regard.

Going back to the euro, the data doesn’t really change much on what we should expect from the ECB. And it sure doesn’t tell us much of what else to expect after June, at least for now.

In that sense, it’s not a major game changer for the currency and its outlook for the time being.

The euro is nudging a little lower but it isn’t anything out of the ordinary. EUR/USD is stuck within a defined trading range since the middle of this month. The pair is seeing upside more limited by the April high at 1.0885. Meanwhile, downside is more limited by the 100-day moving average (red line) – now seen at 1.0810. The 1.0800 level is also providing added support for the pair for now.

So, until there is reason to break stride from the above range, the price action in EUR/USD is very much contained. The move lower in the euro is also not helped by a steadier dollar. Higher yields and languishing risk sentiment is helping to keep the dollar underpinned so far this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.