European Central Bank meeting this week – preview – rate cuts seen September and December

The European Central Bank statement is due on Thursday 18 July at 1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time

• no change to interest rates is widely expected

Lagarde’s press conference follows a half hour later.

From the Deutsche Bank preview, in brief:

• we expect the ECB to leave policy unchanged
• ECB is not on a pre-determined path … the ECB does not want to commit to when and how much it will cut … it wants to be led by the data
• expect the ECB to avoid explicit guidance
• as inflation converges towards target, restrictive monetary policy stance will unwind further
• baseline remains two more 25bp cuts, in September and December this year … a cut in September is not a done deal … but remains the most likely outcome
• recent data suggest the ECB staff need to revise the near-term inflation outlook higher
• continue to see the terminal rate in a landing zone of 2.00-2.50% in late-25/early-26

On the press conference:

• we expect President Lagarde to be guarded in her responses to direct questions on France, saying that the ECB is attentive to what is happening in markets at all points in time and that euro area member states have agreed a fiscal framework with which they are expected to comply

ECB dates 2024

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.