Fed Gov. Jefferson: If inflation is more persistent, holding rates in place for longer

Fed Gov. Jefferson speaking:

• If incoming data suggest inflation is more persistent than I currently expect it will be appropriate to hold in place current restrictive stance of policy for longer
• Outlook is still quite in certain
• Recent readings on both job gains in inflation have come in higher than expected.
• In March, headline PCE was 2.7% over past 12 months based on Fed staff estimates core PCE at 2.8%
• Despite considerable progress in lowering inflation, job not yet done.
• My baseline outlook remains inflation will decline further with policy rate at current level.
• My baseline outlook is also for labor market remaining strong, demand and supply continuing to rebalance
• compared to Q4 2023 I expect Q1 economic growth to slow down but remain solid as indicated by February and March retail sales data.
• I am fully committed to getting inflation back to 2%.

The comments are in line with the expectation that restrictive policy will restrict inflation/job growth, but not seeing it in the data yet. Jefferson does not make reference to policy easing. When he last spoke on February 22 he said that easing “will likely be appropriate later this year”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.