Fed rate hike pricing plunges after GDP data

Before today’s US GDP report, the market was pricing in 41.5 basis points in Federal Reserve easing. Afterwards, it sees just 35 bps in cuts.

The odds of a cut in July fell from roughly 50/50 to 34%. A cut isn’t even fully priced in for November.

The shifts are due to the inflation reading in the report. The PCE deflator was 3.1% compared to 3.0% expected. Core PCE was 3.7% compared to 3.4%.

Overall GDP rose just 1.6% annualized compared to 2.4% expected.

The outsized reaction to the inflation reading is because tomorrow we get the March PCE report and these numbers imply an upside surprise. When the number is released Friday at 8:30 am ET, keep that in mind, because we could see a ‘sell the fact’ type of reaction.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.