Fed’s Goolsbee: First effects of tariffs may be less imporant than impacts on expectations

• Seems jobs are settling around full employment
• Appearance that inflation process has stalled is largely due to base effects
• View of the economy is full employment, ongoing growth and inflation likely to fall to 2%
• Added uncertainty makes the environment for the Fed foggier, a reason to slow the pace of cuts
• Would watch PPI and listen to industrial contacts in monitoring tariff effects

He paints a good picture of the economy and that’s particularly comforting given that Fed funds are at 4.25-4.50%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.