Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Jan: Mixed USD.Stocks erase declines & close mostly up

• Mixed ending for the major indices. Nasdaq lower but other indices close higher
• Gold consolidates gains as buyers and sellers wait for the next break
• Crude oil futures settle at $78.82
• Fitch estimates for economic losses related to California fires range from $150B to $275B
• ECB Vileroy: French GDP growth could pick up 2026 and 2027
• US 10 year yield up seven of the last nine trading days
• European indices close lower on the day
• New York Fed: Year ahead inflation expectations unchanged at 3% in December
• US employment trends for December 109.70 vs 109.45 (revise) prior month
• Bitcoin extends losses.Trades below $90,000
• Geopolitics: Hamas says talks over some core issues for Gaza ceasefire made progress
• Key releases and events this week
• Dollar is modestly higher to start the trading week. Stocks continue to tumble.
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar holds mostly firmer, equities under pressure
• US unveils new restrictions on AI chip exports

The economic calendar was light with the Employment Trends data coming in a bit higher at 109.70 vs 109.45 last month. Coming off the US jobs report on Friday, the marker reaction was limited.

The other data was a NY Fed survey data which showed.

• NY Fed: Year-ahead expected inflation unchanged at 3% in December.
• December three-year-ahead expected inflation at 3% vs. 2.6% in November.
• Five-year-ahead expected inflation at 2.7% in December vs. 2.9% in November.

Consumers also saw:

• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months declined by 1.6 percentage points to 11.9 percent. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months also declined by 2.0 percentage points to 18.2 percent. Both readings are the lowest since January 2024.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost declined sharply to 50.2 percent from 54.1 percent in November, the lowest reading since April 2021

The reaction was more toward a decline in the USD after gains coming into the US trading day.

As the clock ticks to the close, the greenback is ending the day mixed. The changes of the USD vs the major currencies shows:

• EUR, +0.23%
• JPY -0.06%
• GBP, +0.22%
• CHF, +0.13%
• CAD -0.17%
• AUD, -0.24%
• NZD -0.20%

Those changes compare to the early US session gains in the greenback of:

• EUR, +0.52%
• JPY -0.22%
• GBP, +0.81%
• CHF, Unchanged%
• CAD +0.05%
• AUD, +0.07%
• NZD +0.18%

Modest dollar selling was the trend in the US session.

Stocks also saw a change in direction from the early US session. Major indices moved lower in the early part of the day with the low watermarks reaching:

• Dow industrial average down -93.56 points
• S&P index down -53.73 points
• NASDAQ index down -329.72 points
• Russell 2000 down -30.60 points

However, by the close, all but the Nasdaq had moved into positive territory. The S&P snapped a 3 day decline, but the Nasdaq index which closed lower by -73.53 points or -0.38% at 19088.10, extended it’s losing streak to 4-consecutive days.

The final numbers showed:

• Dow industrial average rose 358.67 points or 0.86% at 42297.12
• S&P index rose 9.18 points or 0.16% at 5836.22
• NASDAQ index fell -73.53 points or -0.38% at 19088.10

IN the US debt market, yields traded higher and lower as well but is looking to close the day modestly higher with the exception of the 2 year:,

• 2 year 4.389% -0.6 basis points
• 5-year 4.605%, +1.4 basis points.
• 10 year 4.786%, +1.2 basis points
• 30 year 4.965%, +0.1 basis points

Tomorrow US PPI data will be released at 8:30 AM with expectations of 0.2% for the MoM. with the core expected to rise by 0.4%. The more important CPI data will be released on Wednesday with expectations of 0.3% MoM for the headline and 0.2% for the core.

Fedspeak will include:

• FOMC Schmid (10 AM ET)
• FOMC Williams (3:05 PM ET)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.