Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 26 Jun: AUD jumps after hot CPI data

FX: The star performer in the session has been the AUD. The currency saw a jolt higher following hotter-than-expected CPI data with the weighted CPI YY measure printing at 4.0% (highest since Nov 2023) and the CPI YY measure coming in at 4.1%. Market probability for an RBA rate hike has increased as a result with the chances of a hike up to 51% for the September meeting.

Equities: Marginal moves seen in equities, after tech saw a decent recovery bounce during yesterday’s US cash session. Nvidia saw gains of over 6%.

Commodities: After a bleak NY session for commodities last night, we’ve seen pretty mixed flows across the board so far, with oil higher but natgas lower, while platinum is up but gold and silver is lower, and in base metals we see iron ore higher but copper marginally lower. Lots of noise, very little signal.

Bonds: Mostly lower across the board (yields higher) with Aussie 10-year yields up to 4.32% following the hot CPI data. For other major benchmark yields we are trading in similar ranges that we’ve been stuck at for the past two weeks.

Have a fantastic session ahead!

• Morgan Stanley likes USDCAD and GBPCAD higher
• BNP Paribas on what’s priced into FX markets with upcoming French elections
• How to position for a possible Canadian recession
• AUDNZD has turned on warp speed today
• New Zealand Treasury says weak economy threatens treasury forecasts
• AUDUSD pops higher after hotter than expected CPI data
• Australia weighted CPI YY 4.0% vs 3.8% expected
• USDCNY keeps grinding towards previous intervention levels around 7.37
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1248 (vs. estimate at 7.2698)
• Heads up for Aussie CPI data due at 02:30 BST | 21:30 ET
• Australia composite leading index -0.01 vs -0.03 prior
• PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2698
• RBA’s Kent says recent data reinforce need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks
• ABN AMRO sees first Fed rate cut by September
• Today’s Economic Calendar
• Russia’s Belousov warns US defense minister Austin of dangers of escalation
• Commodities didn’t have a great day with silver and natgas both down over 2%
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows build of 0.9M vs. -3.0M expected draw
• GBP is the strongest while EUR the weakest

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.