Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 4 Apr:USDJPY moves to support & bounces ahead of jobs

• Key Economic Events to Watch for Today
• US House Speaker Johnson: Pres. Biden ultimatums should be directed to Hamas
• Nikkei 225 down over 2.4% on the day
• BOJ Ueda:Impact of past rises in import costs on Japanese inflation likely to dissipate
• BOJ Ueda: Important for FX rates to move stably reflecting fundamentals
• Japan’s Chief Cabinet Hayashi: Expects BOJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy
• Final February Australian retail sales 0.3% versus 0.3% estimate
• Australia balance of goods for February 7.280 million versus 10.500 million estimate
• Israel agrees to open additional crossing for aid into Gaza
• Japan’s FM Suzuki: Rapid FX moves undesirable. Closely watching FX moves with urgency.
• Japan data – February Household Spending -0.5% y/y versus -3.0% estimate
• Reuters Poll: 29 of 29 economists expect the RBNZ to keep rates unchanged on April 10
• Reuters: Yamazaki says Japanese authorities likely to intervene if JPY falls below 152
• Geopolitics: Al Jazeera reports sirens in several locations in the Upper Galilee
• Fed Barkin: Disinflation likely to continue, but speed of that remains unclear
• Axios on X: If Iran attacks Israel, it would draw a strong response from Israel.
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Middle East war fears grip markets late

Coming into the Asian Pacific session, the USDJPY was under pressure (higher JPY) from the “risk-off” flows. Concerns about increased tensions between Iran and Isreal and Israel’s warning that they would retaliate if attacked, pushed stocks lower and with it the USDJPY. The Japan Nikkei 225 got off to a negative start, with the index moving down about 2.4% at session lows (it has since rebounded a bit and trades down -1.93% currently).

The USDJPY’s move to the downside, took the pair to a low of 150.80. At that level it took the pair into a swing area between 150.71 to 150.88. That swing area defined a ceiling going back to Feb 14 until early March before the pair finally broke lower and to the low for 2024 down at 146.479 on March 11. The subsequent move higher eventually took the USDJPY pair on March 19, back above that key swing area ceiling on its way to testing 2022, and 2023 highs (highest levels since 1990 between 151.91 to 151.967.

Yeaterday, in the US session, the USDJPY after banging against 30+ year highs, finally took a run to the downside helped by the stock market decline. The Asian Pacific run even lower, reaching the key swing area target once again.

Buyers did show at support and the price of the USDJPY has bounced higher (lower JPY). So as we head toward the European session, the JPY is not as strong as it was earlier in the session, but it is still the strongest of the major currencies. The table below outlines the strongest to the weakest of the major currencies currently. THe AUD is currently the weakest of the major currencies.

During the session, the BOJ Ueda, and FM Suzuki were chirping that rapid FX moves was undesirable. There was also a Reuters report that if the JPY moved below 152.00, the central bank would look to intervene. That is nothing new, but with the negative bias, it helped to push the USDJPY lower at least into the aforementioned support.

In other currency pairs:

• The EURUSD fell below its 200 day MA at 1.08313 and retests the broken 38.2% of the move down from the March high at 1.08219. A move below that level will have traders looking toward the 200 hour MA at 1.0802. On the topside, getting back above the 200 day MA would have traders targeting the 50% midpoint at 1.0852
• The GBPUSD also moved lower, and further away from the 100 day MA at 1.2661. The pair is approaching the 200 hour MA at 1.26155 and the 100 hour MA below that at 1.26035. The 200 day MA at 1.25863 is also in play and if broken would give the sellers even more control.

As the European traders look to enter:

• Japan’s Nikkei is down -2.08%
• Hong Kongs Hang Seng index is down -0.71%
• Australia’s S&P/ASx index is down -0.68%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.