ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting the US inflation data

• Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in late July
• AUD/USD hits a 6 month high with USD lower across the majors board
• Ten investment bank forecasts for June US CPI due later on Thursday, 11 July 2024
• US CPI data due Thursday. Here are the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)
• Bank Korea drops phrase ‘upside risks to inflation forecasts have increased’ from statemt
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.13 (vs. estimate at 7.2730)
• Australian Inflation Expectations 4.3% (prior 4.4)
• Bank of Korea monetary policy meeting – leaves base rate unchanged @3.5%
• Japan’s core machinery orders missed estimates for a rise m/m in May – recap
• Fed’s Cook says would be responsive if unemployment rate situation changes quickly
• China announced more short-selling curbs, pledged tighter scrutiny of programme trading
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (May 2024) -3.2% m/m (vs. expected +0.8%)
• US President Biden to hold a press conference at 5.30pm Washington time on Thursday
• Fed’s Cook sees US soft landing: lower inflation, no significant jobless rise
• Australian data – CBA’s household spending survey +0.6% m/m in June (prior +1.1%)
• New Zealand data – June Food Price Index +1.0% m/m (prior -0.2%)
• Goldman Sachs expand crypto offerings, to launch three tokenization projects by year end
• Bill Hwang joins the list of famous Wall Street figures who have been sentenced to prison
• “We finally got a noticeable softening in tone” from the RBNZ, to cut in November
• ANZ on what to watch for timing the first RBNZ interest rate cut. Spoiler, next week’s CPI
• BNZ forecast a November rate cut from the RBNZ (previously February)
• Powell’s interest rate pivot might prove more durable than the one at the end of last year
• Fed Powell helps the stocks reach a record close once again for the S&P and Nasdaq
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: The good times roll into Thursday’s CPI report
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 11 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

It
was a light day for news and data. From Japan we had the latest
machine order data, more in the bullets above on this, but it was a
disappointment and the Cabinet Office downgraded its view on the
series saying the pick-up that had been seen was stalling.

On
the central bank front, Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook
spoke, saying a soft landing would be more likely “when policy
easing began with inflation already close to target and when there
was a relatively firm growth backdrop”. ‘Close to target’ is
the key here, reaffirming the Fed won’t be waiting until 2 % is hit
before easing.

The
Bank of Korea left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%. In its
statement the Bank dropped the phrase ‘upside risks to inflation
forecasts have increased’, increasing expectations of a rate cut
(markets are expecting a cut sometime between August and October).

Major
FX tracked small ranges only. There was a bout of US dollar weakness.
No fresh catalyst was obvious.

US
CPI data is due today at 1230 GMT, 0830 US Eastern time – check out
the post above on ‘ranges of estimates’ to be prepared for any
surprise that might surface.

US
political drama/circus will get renewed impetus on Thursday afternoon
US time with US President Biden holding a press conference after the
NATO meeting.

AUD/USD hit a six month high:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.