ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Round trip for yen and risk

• Republican Senator says Trump is ‘dug in’ on tariffs, ‘like a tick’
• Japan finance minister Kato says FX developments can affect people’s lives
• Bank of Finland Governor and ECB monetary policy maker Olli Rehn speaking Tuesday
• Citi downgrades US equites and upgrades China equities
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1741 (vs. estimate at 7.2597)
• Yen up, US equity indexes down – chicken, egg, dog, tail … bad session for risk again
• Japan’s Finance Minister Kato flags impact of rising rates, pledges stable bond issuance
• Japan Economy Minister Akazawa says FX should move stably, reflecting fundamentals
• Australian February business confidence to -1 (prior +5)
• UK Consumer Spending Slows in February Despite Record Household Confidence
• Japan Trade Minister Muto received no assurance Japan would be exempt from US tariffs
• Japan (final) Q4 2024 GDP +0.6% q/q (preliminary was +0.7%)
• Japan data – January Household Spending +0.8% y/y (vs. expected +3.6%)
• Australian data – Westpac Consumer Confidence (March) +4% (prior +0.1%)
• Bank of Canada’s rate decision on Wednesday is shaping up to be a tight call
• UK Treasury said there is “no plan” to introduce US-style Bitcoin reserves
• Australian weekly consumer confidence survey slumps again, to 86.9 (prior 87.7)
• Italy set to propose a European guarantee scheme aimed at unlocking up to €200 billion
• New Zealand data – Manufacturing sales volumes +1.1% q/q
• Delta Airlines cites softening domestic demand for flights, cuts outlook
• US politics – Trump making to calls to try to avert government shutdown
• UBS has cut its target price on Tesla (TSLA). To $225. This still seems very high?
• Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, March 11, 2025 – Japan Q4 2024 GDP
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 11 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Volatility index, VIX, continue to surge higher. Hits its highest since August 5 last year
• Stocks tumble but does bounce modestly into the close
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bloodbath in risk assets

The
yen initially continued to strengthen during the session, with
USD/JPY dropping to lows just under 146.60. The US 2 year yield hit
its lowest since October last year, while on the yen side JGB yields
held firm.

From
Japan we had plenty of data and comments:

• January
  household spending came in at +0.8% y/y, a bit, big miss on estimates
  of +3.6%
• Q4
  GDP was revised a little lower to +2.2%, from the preliminary
  blockbuster +2.8%
• Japan
  Economy Minister Akazawa says FX should move stably, reflecting
  fundamentals
• Japan’s
  Finance Minister Kato said FX developments impact people’s lives

The
upshot of all this is that after its early fall USD/JPY retraced back to briefly touch above 147.20. As I post its back straddling 147.00.

The
US recession narrative took further hold, sending US equity indexes
down once trade reopened on Globex. Like USD/JPY, we have had some
recovery retrace.

EUR/USD
had small gyrations only, net higher on the session. Italy is
proposing a European guarantee scheme aimed at unlocking up to €200
billion. More fiscal stimulus.

AUD,
CAD, NZD were all a littler more active, dipping early before also
retracing.

From
Australia today we had business confidence falling back back into
negative territory in February. The survey also contains a measure of
business conditions, which tends to be a more objective than the
sentiment driven confidence measure. Conditions improved slightly
higher.

While
analyst notes from banks come and go, the one from Citi (via a Bloomberg report) today drew
some attention. The bank downgraded US equities to neutral, while
boosting Chinese equities to overweight. On the day the news of the
note pretty much bottom-ticked US equity indices.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.