ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump steel, aluminium tariffs, no exceptions, USD up

• Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Presidents Speak at Kentucky and New York Events
• Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks
• Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking on Tuesday
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking again later on Tuesday
• Fed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll)
• Two jets collided on the runway at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona – at least one dead
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1716 (vs. estimate at 7.3067)
• Canada promises response will be “clear and calibrated” on US steel, aluminium tariffs
• Trump threatens “let hell break out” if Hamas doesn’t free all hostages by midday Saturday
• UK BRC Like-for-like Retail Sales (January) +2.5% y/y Prior +3.1%)
• Australia January business confidence +4 (prior -2)
• New Zealand’s finance minister Willis says NZ has a warm relationship with the US
• BoE’s Mann says UK inflation is less of a threat, prices coming close to 2% target
• Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to pick up
• Australian dollar losing a few tics now as (tariff) reality bites
• Australia February Consumer Sentiment +0.1% (prior -0.7%)
• Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others – no exception tariffs
• Key take away – Trump’s 25% steel and aluminium tariffs – NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS
• Is MCD Stock a Buy?
• White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries
• The last time Trump proposed tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium he backed down
• Trump agreed to consider an exemption for Australian steel tariffs
• Trump and Australian PM Albanese have spoken (probably on steel tariffs)
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Gold hits another record high
• Eurozone to shrug off Trump steel and aluminium tariffs? EUR/USD forecast to 1.08
• US home price cuts are at the highest in over a decade
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 11 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Trump
raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 25% ‘without
exceptions or exemptions’. They’ll take effect on March 4 (so,
still time for him to change his mind).

The
USD responded in a slow manner, rising over the course of the
session, not by too much.

EUR,
AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, JPY and CHF are all lower.

The
situation for the Australian dollar was confusing. Australian Prime
Minister Albanese said Trump is considering an exemption for
Australia. Minutes later we had Trump shouting ‘no exceptions or
exemptions’. Minutes after that we had Trump conceding he was
considering an exemption for Australia.

You’d
think AUD would have swung around on all this headline ping-pong. It
did, but in a small range only. Tiny really. As the session
progressed and some risk was taken
off the table the AUD slid a little further.

On
the data front later we had an improvement for Australian
business confidence, turning a little positive in January at +4, from
-2 in December. Business conditions slipped from December (to +3
from +6).

Back
to Trump’s tariffs, Canada’s industry minister said the tariffs
are “totally unjustified”, that he is consulting with
international partners on them, and that Canada’s response will be
“clear and calibrated.” Canada is a major exporter of steel
to the US.

Catherine
Mann, a Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, was reported
in the Financial Times as saying she sees firms struggling to
increase prices now as consumers trim their spending, You’ll recall
that at last week’s meeting the normally more hawkish Mann pivoted
to a dovish dissent, wanting to cut the Bank rate by 50bp instead of
the 25bp that was decided upon. Mann is speaking twice in the
sessions to come today.

Gold
hit a record high above USD2940, up over 1%. It then dropped
back, shedding USD30 in rapid time. I didn’t see any news-type
catalyst.

Trump
warned that if Hamas does not release all Israeli hostages by midday
Saturday, he will push to cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and allow
military action to resume. “If all of the hostages aren’t
returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I’d say cancel it and all
bets are off—let hell break out”.

Gold:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.