ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY popped back above 147.00

• Saudi crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September by about 3 mn barrels
• RBA’s Hauser says there is a risk the unemployment rate could rise faster than assumed
• China’s struggling economy overly reliant on exports, 2nd trade war with Trump a nightmare
• China doubling down on its overcapacity strategy, digging the economy into a deeper hole
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision a very close call – why they could cut
• AUD/USD: Where we are at and where we are going
• UBS expect EUR/USD to gradually rise as US exceptionalism ebbs
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1458 (vs. estimate at 7.1777)
• OPEC is set to release its latest, August, monthly report later today (Monday)
• US Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group accelerating towards Middle East
• Should the Federal Reserve listen to its elders and cut rates now, before September?
• UBS hold steady forecasting S&P 500 to 5,900 by year end, and higher to 6,200 by June 2025
• UK employers plan lowest pay rises in two years
• New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board split on Reserve Bank interest rate cut
• Oil traders – Israel placed on High Alert, indications suggesting imminent Iran attack
• Bank Credit Analyst still forecasting S&P 500 collapse to 3,750
• Former BOJ board member Sakurai says Bank of Japan will not be able to hike again in 2024
• Weekend – Bank of America forecast no US recession, Fed rate cuts in September & December
• Today is a market holiday in Japan – closed on Monday, August 12, 2024
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 12 August, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 12 August 2024
• CIBC tweaks rate cut forecasts, sees earlier easing from Fed and Bank of Canada
• Weekly Market Outlook (12-16 August)
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI & Retail Sales; UK CPI & Jobs data; Aussie jobs and RBNZ
• Fed’s Bowman: Cautious on rate cuts, eyes upside inflation risks
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 9 Aug: A dull Friday ends a volatile week

It
was a more subdued session than many of those seen last week in Asia.
USD/JPY began early trading not far from its Friday close, around
146.55, before rising above 147.10. Ex-Bank of Japan monetary policy
board member Sakurai hit the headlines saying he thought the Bank
would be unable to hike again this year due to market volatility
(he’s quite observant) and the low likelihood of a rapid economic
recovery. Sakurai expects a hike around March 2025. USD/JPY has since
fallen back a little and is circa 147.00 as I post.

In
global politics, US
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the deployment of a guided
missile submarine to the Middle East, along
with accelerating the pace of deployment of the Abraham Lincoln
carrier group. This is in response to the threat of an imminent
Iranian/Hezbollah/Hamas attack on Israel. Oil is up a little on the
session.

Across
major FX the kiwi $ was a notable gainer. NZD/USD is back above
0.6010.

It
was a market holiday in Japan today.

Bitcoin lost ground:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.