ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY up 100+ points to 153.50

• ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul speaking Monday – on supervision
• ICYMI: US ordered TSMC to halt shipments to China of chips used in AI applications
• Chatter around that China is likely to implement stronger fiscal policies in 2025
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations survey: 2 yr at 2.12% (prior 2.03%)
• EUR/USD forecast: Trump policies likely to be watered down, USD won’t sustain its strength
• China to counter 60% Trump tariffs with massive incentives to Europe, Asia
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1786 (vs. estimate at 7.1813)
• Morgan Stanley on the Impact of Trump’s Tariffs, Immigration, and Fiscal policies
• “BOJ divided on rate hike timing” – USD/JPY pops a little higher on the session
• ICYMI – ECB Council Member Urges Prudent Monetary Policy Approach
• BOJ Summary (Oct.): Yen’s depreciation has significant effects
• Moody’s said “the risks to US fiscal strength have increased”
• Bitcoin above US$80K
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz willing to call parliament vote of confidence pre-Christmas
• Japan Prime Minister Ishiba faces leadership vote in parliament today
• Heads up for a US holiday on November 11 – Stock markets open, bonds closed
• ICYMI – China inflation data over the weekend showed CPI flirting with deflation
• ECB’s Holzmann sees no reason not to cut rates in December
• Fed’s Kashkari: Fed wants to have confidence inflation will go all the way back to 2%
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 11 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 11 November 2024
• Weekly Market Outlook (11-15 November)
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US and China CPI, US Retail Sales, UK and Australian Jobs
• China October CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%, prior +0.4%), deflation prospect lingers

USD/JPY
rocketed higher on the session. As I post its up more a big figure
from its early lows. Concerns seem to centre on the vote in the Diet
today for Prime Minister, although its expected that incumbent PM
Ishiba has done enough to secure victory. He will lead a minority government, which is a recipe for ongoing political volatility in the country. Also of note on the session
was the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, which reported some
disagreement amongst policy makers on the next rate hike. On balance
the Summary provided no clear indication of a rate hike in December.

Apart
from JPY, major FX rates traded small ranges only.

Over
the weekend we had the latest China consumer price inflation data,
along with producer prices. The CPI rose at its slowest rate in 4
months and the PPI fell even further into deflation. USD/CNH dipped Monday but has since recovered to be higher on the session.

From
New Zealand we had data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on
inflation expectations. The two-year moved a little higher, but
remained near the midpoint of the central bank’s target band. The
one-year dropped a touch. NZD/USD has done little.

In
geopolitics (impacting Chinese equities), the US Department of
Commerce sent a letter to TSMC imposing export restrictions on
certain sophisticated chips. This weighed on the price of the shares,
although dozens of other semiconductor A-Shares are limit up.

Bitcoin approached US$2K.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.