Forexlive European FX news: Swiss CPI comes in line with forecasts

• OPEC+ likely to prolong oil cuts for Q1
• China announces further export ban on critical minerals to the US
• ECB’s Cipollone: Trump tariffs could lead to reduction in growth, inflation in Europe
• Dollar sits tentatively lower in European morning trade
• European indices open slightly higher to start the day
• What are the main events for today?
• Switzerland November CPI +0.7% vs +0.8% y/y expected
• UK stats office notes that unemployment rate is largely unchanged at 4.2%
• Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European trading
• China lifts final trade restrictions on Australia meat exporters
• USD/JPY holds slight bounce after brush against key technical level

It’s been a quiet session in terms of newsflow and data releases. The main highlight was the Swiss CPI report which printed in line with forecasts. That of course didn’t change anything for the market as it continues to price in a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut this month.

The US Dollar is a tad weaker almost across the board today as Fed’s Waller and Fed’s Williams dovish comments yesterday strengthened the expectations for a 25 bps cut this month. We will likely need a hot US CPI report next week to force them to skip the December cut.

US equities are almost unchanged on the day, while US Treasuries are a bit higher. Gold continues to consolidate ahead of the US NFP and CPI reports, while crude oil has been in a positive mood today on the back of strong US Manufacturing PMI yesterday, weaker USD and the expected OPEC+ output cut delay.

The focus will now switch to the US Job Openings data due at 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET. The consensus number is 7.475M vs. 7.443M prior. The last report surprised to the downside with the quits rate ticking
slightly lower and the hiring and layoffs rates remaining relatively stable.

It’s a labour market where at the moment it’s hard to find a job but there’s
also low risk of losing one. There’s a good chance that things will improve
next year though and there have been some positive signs already.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.