ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY flirts with break of 150.00 level

Headlines:

• USD/JPY heavy, eyes test of 150.00 level
• Gold homes in on the $3,000 mark
• Weekly update on interest rate expectations
• BOE odds hardly changed after the UK CPI report yesterday
• ECB’s Simkus: I agree with expectations of 3 more cuts in 2025
• PBOC says will step up analysis of macro economic and financial work
• US Treasury secretary Bessent: I don’t want others to manipulate their currencies
• Germany January PPI -0.1% vs +0.6% m/m expected
• Switzerland January trade balance CHF 6.12 billion vs CHF 3.49 billion prior

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields down 2.6 bps to 4.509%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,944.97
• WTI crude up 0.1% to $72.29
• Bitcoin up 1.2% to $97,446

There wasn’t too much action in European trading today, with the dollar settling a little lower no thanks to a potential downside break in USD/JPY.

The pair was already down to around 151.30 coming into the session before briefly nudging under the crucial 150.00 mark. Price action is still keeping just above the figure level but the downside pressure is growing and that could weigh on the dollar on a broader scale if the break runs.

There wasn’t any major headline catalyst for the move but as outlined in the linked post above, one can’t ignore the continued rise in JGB yields as a plausible factor.

Besides that, the dollar remains slightly softer in general as traders await more trade and geopolitical developments involving Trump. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0440 and GBP/USD up 0.1% to 1.2600 on the day. Despite US futures keeping lower, commodity currencies are holding their own with USD/CAD down 0.1% to 1.4215 and AUD/USD up 0.4% to 0.6370.

Overall, the moves aren’t anything to shout about but it makes for some added push and pull on the week at least.

In other markets, European stocks are looking for a minor bounce back following yesterday’s slump. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are lower and that’s not helping with the mood in USD/JPY as well.

In the commodities space, gold is off earlier highs of $2,954 but remains poised for an eighth straight week of gains. $3,000 incoming?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.