ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY stays pinned down, Eurozone core inflation steady

Headlines:

• USD/JPY tests 150.00 mark after Tokyo inflation speeds up
• Gold Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside
• Eurozone November preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y expected
• France November preliminary CPI +1.3% vs +1.5% y/y expected
• Italy November preliminary CPI +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expected
• France Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelim
• Switzerland Q3 GDP +0.4% v +0.4% q/q expected
• Germany November unemployment change 7k vs 20k expected
• Germany October retail sales -1.5% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Germany October import price index +0.6% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• ECB consumer expectations survey shows inflation edging up slightly in the year ahead
• BOE governor Bailey: We are very supportive of growth

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD and EUR lag on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields down 3.1 bps to 4.211%
• Gold up 0.9% to $2,664.48
• WTI crude down 0.2% to $68.60
• Bitcoin up 2.3% to $97,375

The big mover so far today remains the Japanese yen, after it surged higher in Asia trading following stronger Tokyo inflation data. That owed in part to the lapse of government energy subsidies but nonetheless, traders are taking it as a signal for a potential rate hike by the BOJ next month.

USD/JPY dipped under 150.00 before weaving in and around the figure level after, with the low touching 149.55 in European morning trade. But now, the pair is hugging close to the figure level again but still down roughly 1% on the day at 150.08.

Besides that, major currencies didn’t get up to much otherwise. The dollar is trading lightly changed against the rest of the bloc with EUR/USD and GBP/USD pretty much flat at 1.0551 and 1.2684 respectively. That said, both pairs did hold higher early on before easing back a little now ahead of US trading.

In terms of data releases, we did get the preliminary CPI figures for the Eurozone for November. The headline reading is higher amid base effects i.e. energy price developments but the core reading remained steady. Meanwhile, services inflation also eased a touch on the month. At the balance, it reaffirms a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB for next month.

Looking to broader markets, Treasury yields are keeping lower as we await the return of US traders from Thanksgiving. 10-year yields are down 3 bps to near 4.21% on the day, keeping the dollar in check. Meanwhile, US futures are pointing a little higher with tech shares looking to keep the upside run going.

But just keep in mind that liquidity conditions are likely to be thinner than usual as the Thanksgiving holiday period tends to usually carry through until the weekend. So, some market participants might not be in the picture for today. That even more so as we already arguably saw a month-end rush in terms of flows on Wednesday.

In other markets, gold is sitting higher as it looks to bounce back up going into December trading. The precious metal is still slated to end the month lower but is seen up nearly 1% to $2,664 on the day.

All in all, USD/JPY has been the standout mover in what otherwise has been a more sluggish week for the dollar. But how much of it has to do with month-end or a potential retracement to the post-election gains, we’ll have to wait to find out next week with the US jobs report also in focus then.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.