Goldman Sachs NFP preview, say that August payrolls often have a negative bias initially

Goldman Sachs is forecasting a +155K headline nonfarm payroll employment number. This is slightly under the +160K consensus.

More from their preview:

• Unemployment rate ticking down a touch to 4.2%
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m
• Average hourly earnings +3.7% y/y
• Participation rate 62.7%

GS cite (in summary):

• “Big Data” indicators suggest job creation is below recent payroll trends
• August payrolls often have a negative bias in initial reports over the past decade
• Modest job rebound expected from July’s severe weather impact and contributions from recent immigration surges
• Unemployment rate estimated to decrease partly due to the reversal of temporary layoffs in July (linked to auto plant retooling and extreme heat)
• Wage pressures are easing, but positive calendar effects are influencing the rise in average earnings.

Data is due at 0830 US Eastern time on Thursday, September 5, 2024.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.