Huge improvement in the Australian jobs data may be a ‘head fake’

The data is here from earlier – a stunning drop in the unemployment rate:

• Australia November unemployment rate 3.9% (vs. 4.2% expected)… did a double take on that

Westpac are wary of the result. Analysts at the bank say the November Labour Force Survey (LFS) delivered unexpected results that, at first glance, could suggest a re-tightening of labour market conditions. However, they caution against drawing definitive conclusions, highlighting irregularities in labour supply and gross labour market flows that may have skewed the data. WPAC say that similar anomalies were observed in late 2023, which later proved to be misleading – a ‘head fake’.

Analysts point to shifting seasonality as a recurring issue and warn of a potential correction in December, underscoring the importance of interpreting November’s figures within the broader multi-month trend.

Rather than indicating a dramatic shift, they view the latest data as broadly consistent with a gradual “normalisation” of labour market conditions. This trajectory neither supports the outright weakening suggested by October’s numbers nor a renewed strengthening implied by November’s figures.

That said, a review of the past six months confirms that the labour market remains relatively tight, indicating the normalisation process has been slow to unfold.

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AUD update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.