Interest rate expectations for the Fed after Friday’s Flash PMI data

Despite a solid US Flash PMI print on Friday, money market bets for the Fed wasn’t much changed.

Expectations into the data was for around 47 basis points of easing by year-end, and expectations stayed very close to that despite the beat.

It’s important to keep in mind that there has been a disconnect between soft data (surveys like the PMIs) and the hard data for a while now, and the hard data continues to show moderating growth and inflation.

So, it’s arguably not too surprising to see markets stick to their view of 2 cuts by year-end when considering the bigger picture.

It’s tough to see Friday’s PCE data causing any meaningful stir unless we see some truly shocking deviations.

With all the political risk premiums in the mix, the Dollar hasn’t really been too bothered though, with the DXY trading very close to the 106.00 psychological level after Friday’s data.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.