JP Morgan says the carry trade unwind is only half complete

Sandilya argues that the pain in markets from yesterday has more room to run, saying “we are not done by any stretch”. Adding that the technical carnage of portfolios means that the sharp moves is not something that will be “easily undone”. As such, he argues that any recovery in carry trades prior to the yen surge is unlikely in the short-term.

“The carry trade unwind, at least within the speculative investing community, is somewhere between 50%-60% complete. A good case outcome is stabilisation in markets around current levels, maybe a shallow recovery at best. But in many of these instances you tend to get continuation of the moves, if at a lower velocity than what you had before.”

Well, the air is certainly thinning out there in markets at the moment. S&P 500 futures are only up 0.6% now and USD/JPY is down to 144.55 on the day – up just 0.3% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.