Kickstart the NA FX trading day with a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs.

In the kickstart video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

On the earnings calendar today

3M Co (MMM) Q4 2024:

• EPS: $1.68 (STRONGER; exp. $1.66)
• Revenue: $5.8B (MET; exp. $5.78B)

Charles Schwab (SCHW)

• EPS $1.01 (STRONGER; exp $0.91)
• Revenues $5.33B (STRONGER, exp $51.9B)

Catching up on the economic data in Europe, the German ZEW came in weaker than expectattions, UK Payrol data showed weakness with mixed earnings data: .

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan):

• 10.3 vs. exp. 15.3 (WEAKER)
• Previous: 15.7

UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Dec):

• -47K (WEAKER; Previous. -32K)

UK Average Weekly Earnings (Ex-Bonus, Nov):

• 5.6% vs. exp. 5.5% (HIGHER)
• Previous: 5.2%

UK Average Weekly Earnings (3M YY, Nov):

• 5.6% vs. exp. 5.8% (LOWER)
• Previous: 5.2%

Central Bank commentary today came out of the ECB with policymakers dovish.

• ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that the central bank is not on a pre-set course for interest rates, emphasizing a flexible and data-driven approach. He noted a plausible consensus to take action at each meeting, describing the ECB’s path as simpler compared to other major central banks. Villeroy expressed confidence in the ECB’s inflation outlook, stating that progress toward controlling inflation is on track. While staying vigilant, he highlighted that there is no significant concern about inflation at this time. He also suggested that being decisive with the pace of rate cuts may reduce the need for larger adjustments, though he did not rule out the possibility of larger cuts in the future.
• ECBs Kazimir said a rate cut is all but certain with 2 to 3 more likely.

Looking ahead on the Central Bank calendar, several major central banks have scheduled monetary policy meetings before the end of January 2025:

• Bank of Japan (BoJ): The BoJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting is set for January 23-24, 2025.

• Federal Reserve (Fed): The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on January 28-29, 2025.

• European Central Bank (ECB): The ECB’s Governing Council is scheduled to meet on January 30, 2025.

• Bank of Canada (BoC): The BoC is expected to announce its interest rate decision on January 29, 2025.

In the US, U.S. President Donald Trump initiated the “Golden age of America” (he is partial to gold) discussed various economic and policy initiatives. He called an energy emergency. He emphasized plans to address the trade deficit with the EU through tariffs or increased purchases of U.S. oil and gas. He proposed tariffs on China if it failed to approve a TikTok deal and suggested 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (potentially starting on February 1) and renaming the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of America. Trump expressed intentions to end the Ukraine war quickly. He indicated the U.S. might stop buying oil from Venezuela, emphasizing energy independence.

Additionally, Trump signed orders reversing 78 Biden-era actions, implementing a federal hiring freeze, mandating a full return to in-person work, and withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty. He freed all J6 hostages.Elon? He is scary, and no, if you are so brilliant, you understand common sense. Goes down right next with mocking a handicapped person.

France’s Macron called for the strengthening of the European defense capabilities. He sees less dependence on America.

In the US stock market, Jefferies downgraded Apple on earnings and shares are down over -1.8%. However, in the US stock market, traders are back after the Martin Luther King holiday/Inauguartion (and all that went with it), and are higher. A snapshot of the market shows:

• Dow is up 205 points
• S&P is up 24 points
• Nasdaq is up 113 points

In the US debt market, yields are also open after the holiday yesterday, and are lower:

• 2 year 4.261%, -1.1 basis points
• 5 year 4.383%, -3.2 basis points
• 10 year 4.570%, -4.1 basis points
• 30 year 4.798% -4.6 basis points.

IN other markets:

• Crude oil is lower by -$1.87 or -2.36% at $78.54.
• Gold is up $16.02 or 0.60% at $2727
• Silver is up $0.10 or 0.37% at $30.58
• Bitcoin is trading at $104,362 after trading to a new record yesterday at $$109, 356. The low today reached $100.087 and bounced.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.