“Leaning towards forecasting a hike at the RBA August meeting”

A snippet this morning from ING:

• The minutes of the June RBA meeting need scrutinizing for any talk of rate hikes.
• We know they were talked about, the question is, what is the trigger?
• We are leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

***

I posted a bit of a preview earlier. Since the June meeting we’ve had a couple of inflation reports, nothing official though. What I posted earlier:

Inflation in Australia is, at best, steady and sticky. But, there are indications that its climbing again; last week’s (admittedly partial) CPI data:

• 4.1% vs 3.8% prior

And, a response:

• The surprising uptick in inflation, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures and the RBA’s current policy bias, strengthens the case

Yesterday was more (partial) inflation data:

• Australian private survey of inflation, June 2024: +0.3% m/m (prior +0.3%)

Inflation rising is not a done deal, but its not gone away either. The RBA only discussed a rate hike and a hold at the June meeting:

• RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected
• RBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut today
• RBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range

The minutes today will shed more light on where the RBA is at. But it ain’t cutting any time soon. The minutes are due at 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.