- Inflation to remain a bit bumpy due to energy.
- We expect wage growth remains highest year and rather bumpy
- Data today is the first indication that we have reached a turning point.
- Relatively strong consumption data in Germany and France give some hope for a turnaround
- Geopolitical risks have increased significantly.
- Major worry is protectionism, in light of US election.
- Expect more frequent supply-side shocks, which will have impact on inflation.
Looking at the economic data released earlier today:
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German Prelim CPI m/m
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Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%)
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French Consumer Spending m/m
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Actual: 0.1% (MET Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%)
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French Flash GDP q/q
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Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%)
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Spanish Flash CPI y/y
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Actual: 1.8% (BEAT Forecast: 1.7%, Previous: 1.5%)
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Spanish Flash GDP q/q
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Actual: 0.8% (BEAT Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.8%)
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German Unemployment Change
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Actual: 27K (MISSED Forecast: 15K, Previous: 19K)
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Italian Prelim GDP q/q
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Actual: 0.0% (MISSED Forecast: 0.2%,Previous: 0.2%)
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German Prelim GDP q/q
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Actual: 0.2% (BEAT Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: -0.3%)
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EU Prelim Flash GDP q/q
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Actual: 0.4% (BEAT Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%)
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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