Morgan Stanley expects US CPI to surprise to the downside in April

This is worth thinking about as we await the FOMC decision.

From Morgan Stanley:

We expect inflation data “to reverse to downside surprises in April. .. Several data series indicate a rapid deceleration in rents. .. Financial Services inflation is linked with stock market returns, and the reversal in the S&P 500 in April will likely push this volatile component of inflation indices down .. Continued China deflation should keep US goods prices broadly in deflation ..”

Also notable is the ongoing decline in oil prices. They’re down 3.4% so far today, which is a good start for May inflation. That comes after a slight decline in April oil prices, though it was back-weighted in the month, so won’t offer much help until May anyway.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.