New Zealand Q1 2024 CPI expected higher q/q than in final quarter of last year – preview

New Zealand January – March quarter CPI is due at 2245 GMT, which is 1845 US Eastern time.

Snippet previews:

BNZ:

• After
  the March inflation partials were released on Friday, we
  have revised down our forecast for Q1 headline CPI to
  0.6% q/q and 3.9% on an annual basis. While this is above
  the RBNZ forecasts (0.4% q/q and 3.8% y/y), the Bank
  noted recent price increases are mostly due to volatile
  components at the April Monetary Policy Review.

KiwiBank:

• Price growth likely accelerated over the quarter, up 0.8% from 0.5%. However, on an annual basis we expect inflation to ease from 4.7% to 4.2%.

ASB:

• Our CPI pick is for a 0.7% quarterly increase in headline CPI in Q1,
  above February MPS expectations. Importantly however, the general
  cooling in annual inflation is expected continue, with annual headline
  inflation down to 4.1%, its lowest in almost 3 years.
• Rates of annual
  core inflation are also expected to cool.
  We expect lower tradable inflation will continue to be the key driver
  of cooling headline inflation. Easing global goods inflation is weighing
  on tradable prices, with lower fuel prices also impacting the quarterly
  print. On the other hand, non-tradable inflation remains sticky, with a
  solid 1.2% quarterly print pencilled in. Although a 6.5% lift in tobacco
  prices will largely be looked through.
• We still expect headline inflation
  to fall back below 3% by Q3 24. But uncertainty over the inflation
  outlook is still high. Lingering upside risks, including to tradable
  inflation, suggest the RBNZ will continue to err on the side of caution.
  We don’t anticipate rate cuts until November 2024.

Westpac:

• Q1 CPI will
  show domestic forces driving prices with headline and core rates still
  above the RBNZ’s mid-point (Westpac f/c: 4.2%yr, market f/c: 4.0%yr).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.