The election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it’s useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.
- November is the best month for USD/JPY
- Best month for the Nasdaq
- Third-best month for the US dollar
- The November through February is strong for gold
- Second-best month for the S&P 500
- Second-best month for the MSCI world index
- Second-best month for the German DAX
- Best month for the Nikkei 225
- The final month of the seasonal slump for oil. Seasonals neutral in Dec-Jan then strongly positve from Feb-June
Going into last November, the S&P 500 had declined for three straight months but that month marked a turning point as it recouped nearly all the gains in what was the beginning of a five-month rally. This time, we’re coming into the month with better momentum, though October was negative for stocks.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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