NY Fed survey on consumer expectations: One year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior

• 1 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior
• 3 year inflation 2.9% vs 2.8% prior
• 5 year inflation 2.8% vs 3.0% prior
• Expected home price rise 3% vs 3.3% prior
• Consumers see slower price growth for rent, food, medical care, college and gas
• Expected year-ahead earnings growth best since Sept 2023
• Perceptions of household financial situation lost ground in June
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 2.4 percentage points to 14.8%

The absolute levels aren’t indicative but the trend is. On that front, expectations fell in two of the three timelines and even three-year inflation is below pre-pandemic levels.

Median year-ahead expected price changes decreased for all goods in the
survey, by 0.5 percentage point for gas to 4.3%, 0.5 percentage point
for food to 4.8%, 1.7 percentage points for the cost of medical care to
7.4%, 2.6 percentage points for rent to 6.5%, and 3.1 percentage points
for the cost of a college education to 5.3% (the series’ lowest level
since December 2020).

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated
slightly with more respondents reporting being worse off than a year
ago, and fewer respondents reporting being better off. Expectations
about households’ year-ahead financial situations were less dispersed
with fewer respondents expecting to be better off a year from now ago,
and fewer respondents expecting to be worse off.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.