NZDUSD Technical Analysis

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations across the board.
• The latest US Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures
  remain in expansion though.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged dropping
  the tightening bias and stating that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive
  level for a sustained period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labour market report beat expectations across the
  board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in
  contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in
  expansion.
• The market expects the first cut in
  August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD finally
broke through the key support zone
around the 0.6050 level. The sellers will now target the 0.59 handle as there’s
no other significant support until then. The buyers will need the price to rise
back above the key 0.6050 level to start targeting new highs.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline where we
can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. If we
were to get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with
a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows with a better risk
to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting the 0.6218
level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
might be forming a double bottom around
the 0.5985 level, but the price will need to break above the 0.6030 neckline
and the trendline to confirm it. Nevertheless, the buyers will likely start to
position for a break above the trendline in advance with a break above the
0.6008 level as the trigger point for a bullish move. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking below the recent low to increase the
bearish bets into the 0.59 handle.

Upcoming Events

Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking where the market
will want to see if he sounds hawkish after the recent economic data. Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with
the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.