NZDUSD Technical Analysis

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was
  premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way
  to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second
  consecutive month.
• The US NFP beat expectations across the board
  although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• There’s now basically a 50/50 chance of a rate cut
  in June.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged dropping
  the tightening bias and stating that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive
  level for a sustained period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labour market report beat expectations across the
  board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in
  contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in
  expansion.
• The market expects the first cut in
  August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD rallied
all the way back to retest the broken support zone now turned
resistance where we have also the confluence of the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
Fibonacci level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the 0.6218 resistance.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4
hour chart, we can see that we got a rejection of the resistance recently and a
pullback into the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving
average. The price bounced from that support zone following a goldilocks NFP
report and rallied all the way back into the resistance zone. If we get another
rejection from the resistance, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a
defined risk below it to position for a breakout with a better risk to reward
setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have another trendline which has been defining the recent uptrend following the
NFP release. If the price breaks the trendline, we can expect the sellers to
pile in with more conviction to position for a drop into the next trendline.
The buyers, on the other hand, will likely continue to lean on the trendline to
print new higher highs and higher lows.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we get the RBNZ Rate Decision, the US CPI
report and the FOMC Minutes. On Thursday, we will have the US PPI and the
latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the New
Zealand Manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.