NZDUSD Technical Analysis – We are testing a key trendline

Fundamental
Overview

Yesterday, we got the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI and even though the headline number missed
expectations, under the hood the report was better than the prior month.

The bad news was new orders
falling further into contraction, which is a proxy for demand, and it’s
generally considered as a leading indicator.

Tight monetary policy of
course has been weighing a lot on the manufacturing sector and if the Fed
manages to avoid a hard landing as it cuts rates in the next months, we could
see a rebound in Q4.

From a monetary policy
perspective, the data didn’t change much for the Fed expectations although the
probabilities for a 50 bps cut edged a bit higher. For the RBNZ, the market
sees a 40% probability of a 50 bps cut in October and a total of 75 bps of
easing by year-end.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is testing a key support
zone around the 0.6175 level where we can find the confluence
of the trendline
and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. We can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the trendline to position for a rally into a new high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 0.6050 support.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the setup around the 0.6175 level. There’s also a counter-trendline
defining the bearish momentum of the pullback. The buyers will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the
sellers will likely lean on it to position for a break below the major upward
trendline.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price consolidated near the trendline with no major reaction from
the ISM Manufacturing PMI. There’s not much else we can glean from this
timeframe as the buyers will just look for a bounce, while the sellers will
look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Job Openings. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims
figures and the ISM Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US NFP report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.