NZIER forecasts suggest activity in New Zealand’s economy to remain soft in the near term

NZIER is the new Zealand Institute of Economic Research. The NZIER Consensus Forecasts are an average of New Zealand economic forecasts compiled from a survey of financial and economic agencies. These are not NZIER’s forecasts. Link here for more.

As part of the most recent set of forecasts is this for the New Zealand dollar:

More broadly, summary of NZIER Consensus Forecasts Highlights

• Economic Growth:

  • 2025 Outlook: Sluggish growth expected through March 2025, with GDP growth improving to 2.2% in the following year.
  • Economic activity remains soft in the near term, as indicated by BusinessNZ’s PMI, PSI, and NZIER’s business surveys.
  • Growth is anticipated to pick up beyond 2025, driven by lower interest rates.

• Household Spending:

  • Forecasts revised higher due to:
    • Many households fixing shorter-term mortgages, anticipating lower interest rates.
    • Over half of mortgages are due for repricing within six months, potentially reducing repayments.
    • Income tax cuts are expected to boost discretionary spending.

• Residential Investment:

  • Outlook revised upwards as lower interest rates are expected to support recovery in the housing market.

• Exports:

  • Post-2025 export growth revised higher:
    • Strengthening commodity prices, especially dairy, to support export performance.
    • Global food supply constraints expected to benefit New Zealand exports.
    • Risks: Potential negative impacts of U.S. trade policy could be mitigated by China’s economic stimulus package.

• Inflation:

  • CPI inflation forecast for March 2025 revised down to 2.1%, within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 1–3% target band.
  • Inflation expected to stabilize around the 2% mid-point in the coming years.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.