Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut slip to 55%

What a day this is turning out to be.

The implied odds of a 50 bps were almost 70% yesterday but have slipped back to 55% in a steady grind. The market just doesn’t know what’s coming but there is clearly some anxiety today about under-delivering. That’s led to a dollar rally and a selloff in bonds.

I think November pricing is even more interesting right now as it’s pegged right at 75 bps. So if you get 25 today and a dovish bent, then that’s not far off. Alternatively, you could get 50 today and that looks underpriced for the possibility of 50 again in a front-loading. Overall though, 75 for November looks about right.

Going out to Sept 2025, pricing is for 236 bps, which is down from 245 bps yesterday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.