Oil today – analysis by orderFlow Intel

Crude Oil Futures (CL) Order Flow Intel: Analysis, Prediction & Score

Prediction & Score:

Score: -5 (Moderately Bearish with Exhaustion Signs)

Rationale:

✔️ Sellers remain dominant, outpacing buyers in 4 of 5 bars.✔️ Delta (%) increased bearish pressure in Bar 5 (-6.08%), the last of the 5 bars 100 range bars analyzed over more than 24 hours, confirming continuation potential.✔️ Buyers tried to push back in Bar 4 (+2.71% delta), but sellers regained control in Bar 5.⚠️ Some exhaustion signs appear, particularly with erratic buy/sell volume shifts and stagnant Delta SL.

Bearish Order Flow with Some Absorption:

• Delta (Bar) is negative in 4 of the last 5 bars, showing more aggressive selling than buying.
• Delta (%) turned strongly bearish in Bar 5 (-6.08%), the most negative since Bar 2 (-3.72%).
• Cumulative Delta remains negative, signaling broader bearish sentiment throughout the session.
• Delta SL remains limited, showing sellers maintaining control without major shifts.

Buy vs. Sell Volume Patterns:

• Sell Volume outpaced Buy Volume in 4 of 5 bars, confirming steady bearish dominance.
• Buy Volume Growth sharply dropped on Bar 4 (-67.6%) but rebounded slightly on Bar 5 (+3.3%).
• Sell Volume Growth also fluctuated, dropping -70.1% on Bar 4 but rebounding +23.2% in Bar 5.
• This indicates a possible slowdown in bearish momentum but lacks confirmation for a reversal.

Potential Exhaustion Signs:

• Delta Since Low (Delta SL) remained at 0 for Bars 2, 3, and 5, suggesting a cooling phase in aggressive selling.
• Delta Change was volatile, swinging from -4,421 → +2,124 → -2,896.
• Strongest positive delta change (+2,124) appeared on Bar 4, hinting at short-term bullish absorption before sellers regained control in Bar 5.

Key Levels to Watch:

🔻 Bearish Confirmation: If price fails to sustain any recovery, expect a continuation lower.📉 Short-term Bullish Scenario: If Delta SL jumps and absorption strengthens, a short-term bounce is possible.

Final Take:

📌 The short-term trend remains bearish, but sellers show possible exhaustion signs.📌 A short squeeze is possible if buyers step in aggressively, but otherwise, further downside continuation is likely if momentum remains weak.📌 A key shift in order flow will determine the next move, with potential volatility ahead.

As mentioned, Score: -5 (Moderately Bearish with Exhaustion Signs)

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This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.