Positioning for the US election – Trump win likely means higher inflation, higher rates

I posted on this yesterday:

• US election imminent – JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump win

The conclusions reached by JPM are not really news, any analyst with two brain cells to rub together can see that profligacy will lead to higher inflation and higher rates. This is not in dispute, we see it all the time across the globe. Be wary of politically motivated hacks arguing otherwise.

DZ Bank are out with a note making the same points (everyone is!):

• Trump’s tariff and migration plans are expected to be inflationary
• Tax cuts would lead to a short-term economic boom
• “All that will significantly reduce the Fed’s interest-rate cut potential”
• “In this scenario, a clear and dynamic positive reaction would be expected on the dollar’s side”

This is correct. This is shown over and over again. Even on Monday the USD fell in response to improved polling for Harris. That was not an accident.

Again, do not take your trading advice from political hacks.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.