Pricing for a 50bp FOMC rate cut has firmed in just a few hours, 41% now

The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period, which means no communication from Fed officials on their outlook for monetary policy.

Going into the blackout Fed officials very much played won anything other than 25bp.

And now this, the probability of a 50bp hik has surged. Its not unusual for ‘leaks’ to come though, if the Fed (Powell, or at his instigation) sees something change and the need to communicate, in this case, a bigger cut is coming.

The Wall Street Journal, in particular Nick Timiraos, is the usual channel.

Tmiraos did write on Thursday:

• WSJ Timiraos: Fed has a rate cut dilemma. Go big or go small
• Wall Street Journal Fed watcher asks on FOMC rate cut next week – Start small or big?

I don’t see enough in his piece to trigger a surge in the prospect of a greater than 25 bp hike. But maybe someone does?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.