Q1 2025 outlook: inflation pressures will rise, Fed likely to stop cutting rates earlier

The S&P Global Ratings outlook for the first quarter of 2025 is titled “Buckle Up”.

Key points made in the report:

• Even before taking office, a second Trump administration is already moving the macro-financial needle and raising downside risks for the global economy. The degree of ultimate policy implementation is a key unknown.
• Our preliminary policy read on the new U.S. administration is that positive growth effects will be minimal, inflation pressures will rise, and the Fed is likely to stop cutting rates earlier. This will lead to tighter financial conditions, a stronger dollar, and a more complicated macroeconomic picture elsewhere.
• Owing to a “wait and see” approach, our GDP growth forecasts have not moved much since the previous publication, other than incorporating changes related to base effects.
• Risks include the full implementation of the proposed U.S. agenda on taxes, trade, and immigration; the end of resilient consumer spending and labor demand; and bond market stress. AI is an upside.

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Here is the link to the piece:

• Economic Research: Global Economic Outlook Q1 2025: Buckle Up
  

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.