RBA meting next week – preview – to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35%

Reuters poll of economists on what they expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on September 24:

• all 45 surveyed expect the cash rate to remain at 4.35%
• 40 expect that rate to persist through 2024
• the median expectation is for a 25bp rate cut in Q1 of 2025

Reasoning is, in a nutshell, that while inflation slowed to 3.5% in July its still above the top of the RBA’s 2 – 3% target band. Add in the strong jobs market.

Among Australia’s biggest 4 banks, ANZ, NAB, and Westpac predict rates
will stay unchanged
this year. CBA expects one cut before
year-end:

• CBA shifts expected RBA rate cut timing to December 2024 (from November)

–

I posted earlier on the likelihood of inflation falling soon:

• Australia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”
• Australian August Monthly CPI preview – Westpac expect 2.7% y/y for the monthly read

And support for AUD:

• AUD/USD support: RBA on hold with strong jobs market, sticky CPI; Fed policy divergence

RBA dates ahead

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.