RBA on hold in May – next move will be a rate cut

Société Générale have a note out on the Reserve Bank of Australia, their central point being that the RBA is too optimistic in its growth outlook.

Soc Gen expect that economic growth in Australia is going to slump, to surprise to the downside. The RBA rate hikes impact is still feeding through into the economy.

• Soc Gen says the next move the RBA is likely to be a cut
• Their base case is a cut in Q4 of 2024

ICYMI:

• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Aussie dips slightly as RBA keeps policy unchanged

An interesting point from Soc Gen on slowing growth that’ll lead to an (eventual) rate cut. It’s a point I’ve seen made with respect to the Federal Reserve also.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.