RBNZ’s Silk: A decision on 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut is on the table for February

• Everything was on the table this week
• But a consensus was reached for a 50 bps rate cut very quickly
• Did not feel the need to do more than 50 bps because there is still work to do on inflation
• Have to make sure core inflation is sustainably at target mid-point

Her remarks are consistent with what Orr said in his press conference this week. A rate cut for their next meeting in February is fully priced in, with odds of a 25 bps move at ~68%. The remainder is tied to a 50 bps move. As for their next three meetings through to May 2025, markets are pricing in ~67 bps of rate cuts in total for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.