Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expected to cut reduce interest rates by 50bp on Feb 19

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting is on February 19. The statement is due at 2pm NZ time:

• 0100 GMT
• 2000 US Eastern time

Reuters poll, in brief:

• The Bank is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% on February 19, according to a Reuters poll.

• Economists forecast an additional 75 bps of cuts this year, totaling 250 bps since August last year.

• The cuts aim to support an economy emerging from recession, with unemployment still rising.

• At 2.2% last quarter, inflation is within the RBNZ’s 1%-3% target range, providing room for rate cuts.

• Thirty-two of 33 economists expect a 50 bps cut, with only one predicting a 25 bps reduction.

• All major banks (ASB, ANZ, BNZ, Kiwibank, and Westpac) project a 50 bps cut.

• 20 of 29 economists anticipate another 50 bps cut in April, with a median forecast of a 25 bps cut in Q3, bringing rates to 3.00% by September.

• 18 of 27 respondents predict rates at 3.00% or lower by year-end, while seven expect 3.25%, and two see 3.50%.

• The total expected rate cuts of 250 bps over 17 months would exceed those by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Earlier:

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview – likely the final 50bp interest rate cut

• New Zealand inflation expectations remained subdued in Q1 2025

And, data today:

• New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) for January 2025: +1.9% m/m (prior +0.1%)
• Business NZ January Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (vs. prior 45.9)

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The RBNZ cash rate:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.