Richmond Fed composite index -10 versus -10 estimate

• Prior month -14

• Manufacturing Activity: Remained in contractionary territory; composite index rose to -10 in December (from -14 in November). Est. -10
• Component Indexes:
  • Shipments: -11 vs -12 last month
  • Employment: -8 vs -10 last month
  • New Orders: Improved to -11 vs -19 last month
• Local Business Conditions: Index improved to 0 (from -14); future local business conditions increased to 40 (from 31).
• Future Expectations: Future indexes for shipments and new orders moved further into positive territory, signaling expected improvements in the next six months.
• Six-month forward Shipments 41 versus 33
• Six-month forward new orders 43 versus 37 last month
• Vendor Lead Time: Index increased to 11 (from 4).
• Backlogs: Fewer firms reported decreasing backlogs; index improved to -13 (from -27).
• Prices:
  • Prices Paid: 2.86 versus 2.48 last month. Growth rate increased slightly.
  • Prices Received: 1.71 versus 2.07 last month. Growth rate decreased.
  • 12-Month Expectations: Firms anticipated growth in both prices paid and prices received. Prices paid 3.78 versus 2.61 last month. Prices received 2491 versus 2.20 last month

Summary:

The data shows slight improvements in current manufacturing conditions, with reduced contractions in several key indicators such as new orders, backlogs, and capacity utilization. Local business conditions improved significantly, while vendor lead times increased. Looking forward, expectations for the next six months suggest optimism, with improvements in shipments, new orders, and employment. However, firms anticipate higher price growth for both inputs and outputs.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.