Sheinbaum says had a good conversation with Trump. Tariffs paused for a month

• Says they will deploy 10,000 national guard immediately to the border to avoid trafficking drugs to the US
• Says tariffs will be paused for a month
• ‘Good’ call with Trump led to some agreements

Comments from the White House also suggest they’re getting what they want from Mexico.

It’s not clear if the tariffs she’s talking about are the US tariffs or the Mexican counter-tariffs.

She messaged on Twitter:

Sostuvimos una buena conversación con el presidente Trump con mucho respeto a nuestra relación y la soberanía; llegamos a una serie de acuerdos:

1.México reforzará la frontera norte con 10 mil elementos de la Guardia Nacional de forma inmediata, para evitar el tráfico de drogas de México a Estados Unidos, en particular fentanilo.

2.Estados Unidos se compromete a trabajar para evitar el tráfico de armas de alto poder a México.

3.Nuestros equipos empezarán a trabajar hoy mismo en dos vertientes: seguridad y comercio.

4.Se ponen en pausa los aranceles por un mes a partir de ahora.

The key is the last part: It can be translated as ‘Tariffs are paused for one month from now on’ or ‘They are pausing tariffs for one month from now.’

Given that we’re talking about an agreement, I expect she’s talking about a pause to US tariffs but it could just mean Mexican counter-tariffs. The market is taking it to mean US tariffs, which is very likely correct. That said, it’s usually Trump who makes that kind of announcement and he’s rarely beaten to the punch.

There has been a big jump in risk assets and the S&P 500 is into the opening gap.

That said ‘one month’ isn’t exactly the long-term certainty that the market likes.

Update: Sheinbaum is now holding a press conference:

• Conversation with Trump was long, covered subjects of mutual interest
• Says she proposed the tariffs pause to Trump
• Trump insisted on addressing trade deficit with Mexico but she pushed back on that
• I think it was a good agreement
• Deal will also help Mexico boost border security

I think the best news here is that so far this is really all about the border, not re-writing trade agreements.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.