TD Securities on RBA rate cuts, inflation remains key driver

I posted yesterday on Bank of America’s view that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut three times in 2025:

• BoA expect just 3 RBA interest cuts in 2025, terminal rate of 3.6%

Via a note from TD Securities (from a few days ago ICYMIO), analysts there suggest that recent activity data does not indicate an urgent need for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates. While some market participants focus on labour market conditions, TD Securities emphasizes that inflation remains the primary factor influencing the timing of the RBA’s first rate cut.

Despite expectations for rate reductions, analysts see no need for the central bank to push the cash rate below neutral levels. As a result, they forecast a total of 75 basis points in cuts this year, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60%.

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We are still a week and a half or so away from the first RBA meeting of the year. The widely held view is the Bank will cut by 25bp.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.