The argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thin

ING remarks after the wages data from Australia earlier:

• Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)
• Australia – “Wage inflation is moderating as expected”

ING says that year-on-year wage growth slowing to 3.5% is a step in the right direction for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider rate cuts.

However, ING notes this deceleration alone isn’t enough for the RBA to rule out any upside risks to interest rates.

Despite the softer data, ING believes a case for a near-term rate cut remains weak, predicting the earliest possible easing from the RBA could come in the first quarter of 2025.

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I suspect even Q1 is too early. The RBA next meet on December 9 – 10, where on hold is expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.