The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed with gains vs the CHF and declines vs the GBP, and the AUDUSD. The EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD and NZDUSD are all little changed on the day in the morning snapshot. .

Retail sales in Switzerland came in weaker than expected at -0.2% which helped to further kick the USDCHF higher (lower CHF). Remember the SNB had a surprise rate cut on March 21. Now, with the Fed cuts melting away (58% chance of a June rate cut with the end of year Fed funds target rate now at 4.66% which is higher than the 4.6% target from the Fed dot plot), that has helped to restart the upside for the USDCHF.

The USDCHF move to the upside today has taken the price to a new high going back to October 31. The high reached 0.90902. The next target area comes in between 0.9118 to 0.91469 and then the 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2022 high at 0.92395 (which is near the high from October 4, 2022).

Today, and this week, there are scheduled a number of Fed speakers (see schedule below). Recent comments are tilting toward less rate cuts vs the 3 that the Fed forecast on their dot plot on March 20 – not too long ago.

Today, starts the series of employment statistics heading into the US jobs report on Friday at 8:30 AM ET. The JOLTS job openings will be released at 10 AM ET with 8.750M estimate vs 8.863M last month. Also on the calendar is the US Factory Orders including the revised Durable goods orders (1.4% vs 1.1% est released just 7 days ago). BTW, the US Non Farm Payroll is expected to come in at 205K (vs 275K last month) on Friday with the unemployment rate at 3.9% (unchanged from last month).

Preliminary PMI data was released for the major European countries.

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

• Actual: 51.4
• Forecast: 51.1
• Prior: 51.5
• The Spanish manufacturing sector indicates a slight expansion, slightly better than forecasted but marginally below the previous value.

Switzerland Manufacturing PMI

• Actual: 45.2
• Forecast: 45.0
• Prior: 44.0
• Switzerland’s manufacturing sector shows a contraction less severe than expected, with a slight increase from the prior value.

Italy Final Manufacturing PMI

• Actual: 50.4
• Forecast: 48.9
• Prior: 48.7
• Italy’s manufacturing activity has improved, moving into expansion territory, surpassing both the forecast and the prior figures.

France Final Manufacturing PMI

• Actual: 46.2
• Forecast: 45.8
• Prior: 45.8
• France’s manufacturing continues to contract, though the actual figure slightly exceeds the forecast and prior values.

Germany Manufacturing PMI (Country unspecified)

• Actual: 41.9
• Forecast: 41.6
• Prior: 41.6
• Germany’s manufacturing shows a continued deep contraction in the manufacturing sector, slightly worse than anticipated but marginally above the prior value.

1. EU Final Manufacturing PMI (Country unspecified)

   • Actual: 46.1
   • Forecast: 45.7
   • Prior: 45.7
   • EUs manufacturing a contraction in manufacturing activity, albeit slightly less severe than expected, with a marginal increase from the prior figure.

2. GBP (British Manufacturing PMI)

   • Actual: 50.3
   • Forecast: 49.9
   • Prior: 49.9
   • The British manufacturing sector shows a slight expansion, exceeding both the forecast and matching the prior value.

In Germany, the preliminary CPI for March rose 0.4% versus 0.6% expected. The YoY came in as expected at 2.2% (versus 2.5% last month). The core rate fell to 3.3% from 3.4%.

A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows:

• Crude oil is trading up $1.24 or 1.48% at $84.94. At this time yesterday, the price was at $82.88
• Gold is trading up $7.88 or +0.35% at $2259.36. At this time yesterday, the price was $2250.94
• Silver is trading up $0.45 or 1.81% at $25.53. At this time yesterday, the price was at 25,005 cents
• Bitcoin currently trades sharply lower and $65,397. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $69,793. The high price reached $69,706.. The low price reached $65,047

In the premarket, the major indices are trading lower today as health insurance stocks get hit hard on games that Medicare would raise prices over 3% much higher than expected. The major indices were mixed to start the new trading week yesterday with the S&P and Dow lower. The NASDAQ index rose Mercer

• Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -251 points. Yesterday the index fell -240.52 points or -0.60%
• S&P futures are implying a decline of -25.02. Yesterday, the index fell -10.56 points or -0.20%
• Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -99.20 points. Yesterday, the index gained 17.37 points or 0.11%.

The European indices are open today after a long holiday weekend. The major indices are mixed:

• German DAX, -0.15%
• France CAC , -0.12%
• UK FTSE 100, +0.21%
• Spain’s Ibex, -0.35%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.21%

Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225, +0.09%
• China’s Shanghai Composite Index, -0.08%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, +2.36%
• Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.11%.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher once again. Yesterday yields surged with the tenure year moving up 10.7 basis points after stronger ISM data:

• 2-year yield 4.720% +0.2 basis points. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.622%
• 5-year yield 4.365% +2.9 basis points. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.237%
• 10-year yield 4.361% +3.8 basis points. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.238%
• 30-year yield 4.499%, +3.2 basis points. At this time Thursday, the yield was at 4.398%

Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads:

• The 2-10 year spread is at -35.3 basis points. At this time Thursday, the spread was at -37.8 basis points
• The 2-30 year spread is at -22.2 basis points. At this time Thursday, the spread was at -22.3 basis points

European benchmark yields are sharply higher after traders return from the Easter holiday weekend:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.