The bond market isn’t having a good day

In the last five hours, US 10-year yields have swung nearly 10 basis points higher. It’s an ugly turn in fixed income after a strong start and was driven by a handful of factors:

1. The two-year note auction tailed by a full basis point despite a decent concession shortly before
2. The selling continued after the 2-year sale but even with that, 5s also tailed by exactly 1 basis point
3. US consumer confidence improved, adding to fears that the demand side of the economy could add to inflation pressures
4. WTI crude oil prices are up $2.13 to $79.86 in a sign of a market that’s surprisingly confident about OPEC will do

The dollar and equities have largely ignored the fixed income move but I’m not sure if that’s a sign of complacency or a market that thinks these moves are all about month-end flows and not fundamentals.

However you slice it, US 10s are now 22 basis points above the post-CPI low and threatening to crack the mid-March high of 4.534%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.