The risk is the Bank of Canada do not cut rates this week, but wait until July – preview

The Bank of Canada decision is due at 1345 GMT on Wednesday, 5 June 2024, which is 0945 Eastern time.

The consensus is for the Bank to cut from 5 to 4.75%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia say a cut is expected, no cut is a risk:

• The
  risk is the BoC stands pat
• The
  market is only pricing about 57bp of cuts this year, including 20bp
  for this week’s meeting.
• While we expect a total of three cuts this
  year, a dovish repricing may be limited this week if the BoC sends a
  cautious message on future rate cuts.

–

The reasoning that would explain a hold at this week’s meeting, if that is what we get, includes that while inflation is trading lower, officials from the BoC have said they want to see it do so for longer, to be more certain that progress lower is sustainable. Thus, they bank could opt for waiting to cut until the July meeting.

For CAD, no cut in June would be a hiccup, but the direction should remain overall lower (vs. USD) due to monetary policy divergence with the Fed.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.