Timiraos: The jobs report doesn’t neatly resolve the 25 versus 50 basis point debate

The market is now at 51% for 50 bps and 49% for 25 bps — almost as close as possible.

Nick Timiraos from the WSJ highlights what the jobs report means:

There was a chance the jobs report would provide an obvious signal on the size of the first cut, and futures-market pricing would move to 90% right away for either 25 or for 50.

Instead, this report doesn’t neatly resolve the tactical question, and the pricing is at 50-50.

The headline figures weren’t bad enough to make 50 the base case but, in light of the revisions, it wasn’t good enough to convincingly and cleanly douse speculation on a larger cut.

The dollar has rebounded on this comment as the market takes it as a sign of uncertainty.

Timiraos also highlighted this:

In July, the three-month average of private-sector hiring was 146,000.

Today’s report shows that figure was revised down to 126,000.

And with the August number, private-sector hiring is now at 96,000, on average, over the last three months.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.