Trump likely to keep Powell for the remainder of this term. Warsh and Hasset candidates

Jerome Powell will remain Fed chair until May 2026, when his term ends.

Trump likes to rant about the Federal Reserve but he’s powerless to remove Powell anyway. There is some belief he could demote him to Fed Governor but that wouldn’t take away his vote.

Current market pricing suggests a cut today at 68% chance of a cut in December and then a high likelihood of a pause in January. All told, the market sees 109 bps in easing by this time next year.

If Powell pivots to something more hawkish, expect him to come under scrutiny from Trump, though it’s not going to make a difference.

The CNN report says that Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hasset are angling for the top Fed job, which should be announced about a year from now. Here is a 2018 report with Warsh where he talks about his interview with Trump for the Fed job last time (which he lost to Powell). Trump also mentioned Warsh here.

Here is how the President-elect recently described the job:

“You show up to the office once a month and you say, ‘Let’s flip a
coin,’ and everybody talks about you like you’re a god,” Trump said last
month at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.